The Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences SATW is involved in early identification of technologies (in short: foresight) on behalf of the Swiss Confederation. Technology Outlook is a result of these foresight activities and presents future-oriented technologies that will be of relevance to Switzerland in the coming years.
The SATW Scientific Advisory Board is responsible for selecting the technologies. Firstly, the technology readiness level (TRL) of all technologies from Technology Outlook 2023 was reassessed , (see NASA, Technology Readiness Level). Secondly, a provisional list of new, potentially disruptive technologies was drawn up in collaboration with the heads of the SATW topical platforms. The TRL and significance of these technologies for Switzerland were assessed by experts. Technologies of major relevance to Switzerland with a TRL between 4 and 7 were included in the final technology list on which the 2025 edition of Technology Outlook is based. For each technology, interviews were conducted with experts. In most cases, there were two or more such interviews. These were based on a standardised questionnaire. The SATW foresight team then incorporated the answers into articles, which were checked for accuracy by the respective experts.
The selected technologies’ importance for Switzerland, as visualised in the four-quadrant diagram, was estimated on the basis of eight parameters, for which values were obtained as part of the standardised questionnaire. Four were used to determine economic importance and four to determine the level of research competence in Switzerland. The eight parameters were as follows:
The experts’ answers were transferred to a point system.
Sales revenue in 2023 (R), based on expert estimates, sector and company reports, statistics databases and self-conducted research:
| Value (in CHF mn) | < 10 | 10–99 | 100–499 | 500–999 | ≥ 1000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Market potential in the coming five years (M), as estimated by experts:
| Value | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 0.4 | 1 | 1.6 |
Legal and regulatory framework conditions in Switzerland (FL), as estimated by experts:
| Value | Unvafourable | Neutral | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 |
Acceptance in Swiss society (FS), as estimated by experts:
| Value | Inhibiting | Neutral | Encouraging |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 0.9 | 1 | 1.1 |
Number of relevant academic research groups in Switzerland (RA), based on information provided by experts and self-conducted research:
| Value | <20 | 20–39 | ≥40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Competence of academic research groups (CA), based on the average h-index of research groups in Switzerland that are active in the given field. The h-index is a metric pertaining to the worldwide perception of a scientist in professional circles, derived from citations of publications by the respective specialist.
| Value | <20 | 20–34 | ≥35 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 |
Number of firms in Switzerland with topic-related R&D (RI), based on information provided by experts, sector and company reports, and internet research:
| Value | <30 | 30-69 | ≥70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Competence of these firms in the international context (CI), as estimated by experts:
| Value | Low | Medium | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 |
The values determined with this point system were converted into a position on the horizontal axis (economic significance) using the following formula:
R ∙ (M+FL+FS)
Different parameters were given different weightings in the formula. Sales revenue, which is based on reliable figures, was defined as the main parameter, while the other three values modulated the revenue. The influence of market potential on sales revenue development was considered to be greater than that of the legal and regulatory framework conditions or of acceptance in society. This weighting formed the basis of the point system and thus determined how the resulting values were obtained.
Each technology’s position on the vertical axis (research competence in Switzerland) was computed using the following formula:
RA ∙ CA + RI ∙ CI
The given numbers of academic and industrial research groups were defined as the two main parameters, which were then modulated by the respective groups’ competence, thus affecting how the values were transferred to the point system.
These calculations yielded values between 2.1 and 19.5 for the horizontal axis and between 1.6 and 12 for the vertical axis. To simplify visualisation, these values were converted using a linear transformation, yielding final positions between 0 and 10 on both axes.
