The four-quadrant diagram is the actual core of Technology Outlook: The chart shows four fields with different categories. The technologies are positioned according to their economic importance (horizontal axis) and the corresponding research competence in Switzerland (vertical axis).
Technologies’ relative importance for Switzerland. The horizontal axis shows the importance of the technologies to the Swiss economy (in 2021); the vertical axis shows the corresponding research competence in Switzerland (in 2021). Building information modelling is not reflected in the four-quadrant diagram, as it is not possible to record sales revenue figure for this technology. (Download chart: PDF | PNG)
The diagram is to be understood as a snapshot with a certain forward-looking orientation, as economic importance is determined by both the sales revenue generated in 2021 and the future market potential of a technology. Here, the sales revenue is that which companies based in Switzerland generate worldwide with the respective technology by means of products or services. Sales revenue generated in Switzerland by assembling or servicing imported products is also taken into account. The value on the vertical axis, research competence in Switzerland, reflects the quality and diversity of academic and industrial research in Switzerland.
The technological maturity (so-called ‘technology readiness level’, TRL) of the technologies in the four-quadrant diagram is reassessed every two years. For the 2023 edition of Technology Outlook, a total of 31 technologies were identified as meeting the defined criteria (see methodology): 26 from Technology Outlook 2021, along with five other technologies that were classed as relevant in SATW’s early identification process, and now appear for the first time in the four-quadrant diagram and under technologies in focus. These are as follows: bioinspiration and biointegration, low-carbon concrete, sustainable adhesives and sealants, negative emissions technologies, and photonic integrated circuits. Building information modelling now appears under technologies in focus, but not in the four-quadrant diagram, as sales revenue figures cannot be recorded for it.
When experts consider a technology to be on the verge of becoming product-ready (see methodology), it is no longer included in Technology Outlook, as this is a future-oriented publication. Of the technologies that were covered in Technology Outlook 2021, this applies to: alternative propulsion systems, collaborative robotics, medical wearables, mobile robots, SCION internet architecture, optical space communication, photonic manufacturing, recycling of rare earths, and smart grids. These topics are no longer addressed in Technology Outlook 2023. Two technologies from the field of artificial intelligence (big data analysis and machine learning), as well as processes and applications involving additive manufacturing and energy-storage technologies, are presented as showcases in the current edition of Technology Outlook and no longer included in the four-quadrant diagram.
Ten of the 31 technologies in the four-quadrant diagram are assigned to the ‘digital world’ research category, six to ‘energy and environment’, six to ‘manufacturing processes and materials’ and nine to ‘life sciences’.
The technologies in the top-right quadrant are the stars, mature top-notch technologies. These technologies are being intensively researched in Switzerland and their importance to the economy is high. These technologies generate high sales revenue for the country and create jobs. The reason why these technologies are nevertheless covered in Technology Outlook is because although they already have applications at a very advanced stage, they also have other applications that, considered in terms of their potential, are still under development. Accordingly, they have excellent future prospects and the resulting opportunities should be exploited. The companies and research institutes working on the technologies in this top quadrant must closely monitor current developments, anticipate future shifts and use the acquired knowledge to open up new markets. This is the only way they can keep up with the times and avoid missing out on emerging developments.
The technologies in the bottom-right quadrant are those that generate high revenues despite research in Switzerland not being particularly strong. These technologies are currently classed as surefire successes. They are mature well-established technologies that are only developing slowly at present. This state of affairs could change though. It is important to closely monitor further development of these technologies. Investment in education and training, as well as in basic and applied research, could pay off.
Technologies in the top-left quadrant can be regarded as demanding niches. Their importance must be critically assessed: They entail a lot of research work, but their importance to the economy tends to be low. Question marks hang over return on investment and future potential. International marketing requires improvement, new markets have to be opened up and manufacturing processes need optimisation to reduce production costs and increase sales revenue. Funding applied research would evidently also make sense.
The bottom-left quadrant comprises the large technological hopefuls group. Their importance to the economy is still low and they are not yet generating particularly intensive research activity either. The market is obviously not yet ready. This quadrant is the starting point for all nascent technologies. Time will tell whether these are rising stars or more likely to be dead wood. It is therefore important to closely monitor and analyse the development of these technologies, as well as to determine their international market potential. Evidently, it would make sense to promote these technologies by bringing academic and industrial partners together, as well as establishing exchange platforms and supportive entrepreneurial framework conditions.
Of the technologies in the 2023 edition of Technology Outlook, six are stars, nine surefire successes, four niches and twelve hopefuls. The technologies presented for the first time in 2023 are among the hopefuls, niches and surefire successes. It will be interesting to see how the technologies develop between now and the next edition in 2025.
Of the 37 technologies that were shown in the first version of the four-quadrant diagram (in the 2019 edition), 19 are also included in this 2023 edition’s four-quadrant diagram. It is interesting to compare how their positions have changed in the four years between the two publications. Did hopefuls become surefire successes, or even stars? Did the economic importance of technological niches increase? Have some technologies become less important for Switzerland?For some of the technologies, such as connected machines and functional fibres, the observed change in position is due to a realignment of content, e.g. narrowing or broadening the focus. A small number of technologies, such as bioplastics, geothermal energy, sustainable food production and robotic surgery, remained in a relatively constant position over the entire period. However, other technologies have changed position – some strikingly so – and these changes are summarised in the table below. Here, the technologies are listed alphabetically.
