National trends

The diagram is to be understood as a snapshot with a certain forward-looking orientation, as economic importance is determined by both the sales revenue generated in 2021 and the future market potential of a technology. Here, the sales revenue is that which companies based in Switzerland generate worldwide with the respective technology by means of products or services. Sales revenue generated in Switzerland by assembling or servicing imported products is also taken into account. The value on the vertical axis, research competence in Switzerland, reflects the quality and diversity of academic and industrial research in Switzerland.

New technologies

The technological maturity (so-called ‘technology readiness level’, TRL) of the technologies in the four-quadrant diagram is reassessed every two years. For the 2023 edition of Technology Outlook, a total of 31 technologies were identified as meeting the defined criteria (see methodology): 26 from Technology Outlook 2021, along with five other technologies that were classed as relevant in SATW’s early identification process, and now appear for the first time in the four-quadrant diagram and under technologies in focus. These are as follows: bioinspiration and biointegration, low-carbon concrete, sustainable adhesives and sealants, negative emissions technologies, and photonic integrated circuits. Building information modelling now appears under technologies in focus, but not in the four-quadrant diagram, as sales revenue figures cannot be recorded for it.

When experts consider a technology to be on the verge of becoming product-ready (see methodology), it is no longer included in Technology Outlook, as this is a future-oriented publication. Of the technologies that were covered in Technology Outlook 2021, this applies to: alternative propulsion systems, collaborative robotics, medical wearables, mobile robots, SCION internet architecture, optical space communication, photonic manufacturing, recycling of rare earths, and smart grids. These topics are no longer addressed in Technology Outlook 2023. Two technologies from the field of artificial intelligence (big data analysis and machine learning), as well as processes and applications involving additive manufacturing and energy-storage technologies, are presented as showcases in the current edition of Technology Outlook and no longer included in the four-quadrant diagram.

Ten of the 31 technologies in the four-quadrant diagram are assigned to the ‘digital world’ research category, six to ‘energy and environment’, six to ‘manufacturing processes and materials’ and nine to ‘life sciences’.

Stars, surefire successes, niches and hopefuls

The technologies in the top-right quadrant are the stars, mature top-notch technologies. These technologies are being intensively researched in Switzerland and their importance to the economy is high. These technologies generate high sales revenue for the country and create jobs. The reason why these technologies are nevertheless covered in Technology Outlook is because although they already have applications at a very advanced stage, they also have other applications that, considered in terms of their potential, are still under development. Accordingly, they have excellent future prospects and the resulting opportunities should be exploited. The companies and research institutes working on the technologies in this top quadrant must closely monitor current developments, anticipate future shifts and use the acquired knowledge to open up new markets. This is the only way they can keep up with the times and avoid missing out on emerging developments.

The technologies in the bottom-right quadrant are those that generate high revenues despite research in Switzerland not being particularly strong. These technologies are currently classed as surefire successes. They are mature well-established technologies that are only developing slowly at present. This state of affairs could change though. It is important to closely monitor further development of these technologies. Investment in education and training, as well as in basic and applied research, could pay off.

Technologies in the top-left quadrant can be regarded as demanding niches. Their importance must be critically assessed: They entail a lot of research work, but their importance to the economy tends to be low. Question marks hang over return on investment and future potential. International marketing requires improvement, new markets have to be opened up and manufacturing processes need optimisation to reduce production costs and increase sales revenue. Funding applied research would evidently also make sense.

The bottom-left quadrant comprises the large technological hopefuls group. Their importance to the economy is still low and they are not yet generating particularly intensive research activity either. The market is obviously not yet ready. This quadrant is the starting point for all nascent technologies. Time will tell whether these are rising stars or more likely to be dead wood. It is therefore important to closely monitor and analyse the development of these technologies, as well as to determine their international market potential. Evidently, it would make sense to promote these technologies by bringing academic and industrial partners together, as well as establishing exchange platforms and supportive entrepreneurial framework conditions.

Of the technologies in the 2023 edition of Technology Outlook, six are stars, nine surefire successes, four niches and twelve hopefuls. The technologies presented for the first time in 2023 are among the hopefuls, niches and surefire successes. It will be interesting to see how the technologies develop between now and the next edition in 2025.

Positional changes in the four-quadrant diagram

Of the 37 technologies that were shown in the first version of the four-quadrant diagram (in the 2019 edition), 19 are also included in this 2023 edition’s four-quadrant diagram. It is interesting to compare how their positions have changed in the four years between the two publications. Did hopefuls become surefire successes, or even stars? Did the economic importance of technological niches increase? Have some technologies become less important for Switzerland?For some of the technologies, such as connected machines and functional fibres, the observed change in position is due to a realignment of content, e.g. narrowing or broadening the focus. A small number of technologies, such as bioplastics, geothermal energy, sustainable food production and robotic surgery, remained in a relatively constant position over the entire period. However, other technologies have changed position – some strikingly so – and these changes are summarised in the table below. Here, the technologies are listed alphabetically.

The table shows how the positions of the 14 listed technologies changed in the four-quadrant diagram between 2019 and 2023. The difference in economic importance between 2023 and 2019 (horizontal axis) and in research competence between 2023 and 2019 (vertical axis) is shown in each case. A positive change on the horizontal axis indicates a shift to the right; a positive change on the vertical axis indicates a shift upwards. The final column shows whether the positional change has resulted in the technology being assigned to a different quadrant in 2023 than in 2019. 

Four parameters are used to determine a technology’s economic importance (see methodology): sales revenue generated worldwide by companies based in Switzerland, the market potential in the coming years, the legal and regulatory framework conditions in Switzerland, and acceptance in society. These parameters are combined to produce an overall value, each being given a different weighting: sales revenue is the main factor; the market potential, framework conditions and influence of society are parameters with less impact. Given the different weighting of the parameters, a shift to the right is usually the result of increased sales revenue, i.e. intensified industrial activity. Changes in the economic importance of a technology are thus industry-driven. Some of the technologies show strong shifts to the right: Quantum and post-quantum cryptography shifted position by 4.9 points, alternative protein sources by 4.6 points, and point-of-care testing by 3.9 points. The only technologies to have seen a decrease in economic importance are digital twins (-2.5 points) and autonomous vehicles (-1.4 points), which in the latter case can be partly attributed to a downgrading of market potential.

Another four parameters are used to calculate the level of research competence in Switzerland: the number of academic research groups in Switzerland working on the topic, the competence of these research groups when compared internationally, the number of firms in Switzerland involved in research and development of the topic, and the competence of these firms in the international context. As is the case with the horizontal axis, the four parameters are combined to produce an overall value. Here, the number of research groups and the number of firms are the two main factors, while the competence of the research groups and that of the firms are parameters with less impact. A shift upwards is usually a result of either an increase in the number of academic research groups, industrial research groups or both. Point-of-care testing, and quantum and post-quantum cryptography are the only cases in which the rise in research competence is due to an increased number of academic research groups; the shift upwards for all other technologies in the table is the result of an increased number of industrial research groups. Accordingly, as is the case with economic importance, changes in research competence are mainly industry-driven.

In summary, when technologies’ importance for Switzerland increases, this is almost exclusively due to industrial activity. These technologies are thus on the verge of being product-ready, as their level of technical maturity indicates.

Analysis of trends on Twitter

Since 2018, SATW has been monitoring discussions on Twitter (rebranded as X in 2023) involving Swiss universities’ official accounts. These accounts are searched for terms that refer to the technologies covered in Technology Outlook using a search engine provided by LinkAlong. There is a deliberate focus on official communication channels to ensure that the dataset comes primarily from sources with a high degree of credibility and relevance. The data thus provides an up-to-date impression of how intensively the Swiss universities are commenting on the individual technologies. It does not reflect all research activities, but mainly indicates which topics the universities consider to be of public interest.

A snapshot of the two-year average from the period 2021–2022 shows photovoltaics dominating public discussion in Switzerland: 33 percent of all Swiss universities tweeted on this topic, 31 percent on blockchain, 29 percent on extended reality, 18 percent on quantum computing and 16 percent on mass cultivation of stem cells. Accordingly, the top five are all technologies that have experienced a major industry-driven positional change in the four-quadrant diagram. There is apparent interest in these topics within both industry and academic research.

How did these top five technologies perform over time though? To analyse this, the average for the 2021–2022 period was compared with that for 2018–2019; the figures for 2020 were excluded because of the impact of the COVID pandemic. As before, the percentage of Swiss universities that tweeted on one of the five technologies was assessed. The graph shows the absolute change between the two periods, i.e. the difference in position within the quadrants.

The graph shows how public discussion involving Swiss universities’ Twitter accounts has changed between 2018 and 2022. The percentage of Swiss universities tweeting on each of the five technologies (rebranded as X in 2023) was assessed. The average for the 2021–2022 period was compared with that for 2018–2019. The absolute change between the two periods is shown. In the case of photovoltaics, for example, comparing 2021–2022 (33 percent) with 2018–2019 (17 percent) reveals a difference of 16 percentage points.

The number of universities tweeting about photovoltaics and quantum computing increased. The rise was particularly pronounced for photovoltaics: The average shows that 17 percent of the universities tweeted about photovoltaics in 2018–2019, but that three years later, this figure had risen to 33 percent. Thus, not only is photovoltaics the technology most frequently tweeted about by Swiss universities, it is also the technology to see the biggest change since 2018. In fact, Twitter discussion of photovoltaics has not just grown since the start of the Ukraine war, but since 2018, when the data began to be collected. It is quite clear that the universities are taking the opportunity to present themselves to politicians and the public as having their finger on the pulse of topical developments. At the same time, the four-quadrant diagram shows that the economic importance of this technology has also increased, which is hardly surprising in the context of the restructuring of the Swiss energy system in the light of Energy Strategy 2050.

The number of Swiss universities tweeting about three of the top five technologies (blockchain, extended reality and mass cultivation of stem cells) decreased. A transfer to industry appears to be imminent here, as the shift to the right in the four-quadrant diagram suggests. The decline is particularly pronounced for blockchain: from an average of 50 percent of universities in 2018–2019 to 31 percent in 2021–2022. This topic has become less current among the universities. Comparative analyses (see International trends) show that this decline also took place in other European countries.

The Twitter data indicates whether universities perceive a technology to be of public interest and whether they comment on it in the communication channels. However, the fact that a technology is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that no research is taking place. It would only be possible to determine whether that is the case by analysing the scientific literature.